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| #9099 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 18.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0900Z SAT SEP 18 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 40.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 65SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART |
