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| #91081 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 12.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS ABRUPTLY REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOW RELOCATED SOME 60 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED A PEAK 2500-FT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 60 KT. THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO LOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE INTENSIFICATION. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD HEADING. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ALBERTO IS LIKELY TO BE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. OWING TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE AND THE SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF...A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CAN PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THIS AREA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.1N 85.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 27.6N 85.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 28.8N 84.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 83.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
