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| #91415 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 13.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 A FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FLEW ACROSS THIS FEATURE A COUPLE OF TIMES AND INDICATED THAT THE WINDS WERE WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. BASED ON SYNOPTIC AND RECON DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT. THE CENTER IS NOW PRACTICALLY ONSHORE SO WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWS THE INLAND DECAY MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...WE EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN 2-5 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN A NNE AND NE HEADING. SMOOTHING BETWEEN THESE FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/8. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND KICK ALBERTO....OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION... NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 82.9W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.4N 80.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/0000Z 36.5N 75.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 15/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/1200Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 17/1200Z 53.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1200Z 55.0N 18.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
