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| #91629 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 13.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 ALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE REMAINED INTACT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM CHARLESTON AND JACKSONVILLE INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG AND WIDE SWATH OF 50-KT AND STRONGER WINDS EXTENDING FROM 1000 THROUGH 8000 FT ASL ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... IT APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 45-50 KT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SAVANNAH AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41008 OFF THE GEORGIA COAST REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 31 KT WITH A GUST TO 39 KT AT A 5-METER HEIGHT. THEREFORE... ALBERTO WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALBERTO AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN MORE EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 12-18 HOURS. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...STRENGTHENING INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO MAY NOT DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS... WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 31.8N 82.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.6N 80.2W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 15/0000Z 36.4N 75.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/0000Z 43.0N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/0000Z 49.5N 47.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
