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| #9166 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 18.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 2100Z SAT SEP 18 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS... MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.7N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
