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| #91738 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 14.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO IS BECOMING ELONGATED. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE MORE THAN 5 DEGREE C TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE CENTER. THESE ARE BOTH EARMARKS OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ALBERTO ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING EXTRATROPICAL STORM STATUS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ALBERTO STILL POSES A SIGNIFICANT FRESHWATER FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AS WELL AS PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 37.0N 75.4W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 15/1200Z 39.8N 68.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 16/0000Z 43.0N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/1200Z 46.0N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/1200Z 53.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1200Z 56.0N 20.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1200Z 57.0N 10.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
