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| #9191 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 18.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0300Z SUN SEP 19 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.6N 42.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 46.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 48.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 49.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 34.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
