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| #9244 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 19.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 1500Z SUN SEP 19 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 42.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 42.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.8N 44.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N 48.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N 48.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 32.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
