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| #927333 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 27.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.2W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the Gulf coast of Florida from Anclote River to Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations in this case during the next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and a motion toward the north-northwest is forecast tonight through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected after Alberto makes landfall, and it is forecast to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 32 mph (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 inches. The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas, and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida peninsula today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg |
