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| #9282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 19.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND BANDING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36 HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER THAT...JEANNE GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT. IN ANY CASE...A VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.5N 72.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 72.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 26.7N 71.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 27.3N 70.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.2N 69.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 68.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 67.5W 65 KT |
