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| #9346 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 20.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 2100Z MON SEP 20 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 47.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 250SE 225SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 47.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 48.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 49.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.0N 43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE |
