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| #935349 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 07.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection. Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355 degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough, which will eventually absorb Debby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 38.9N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
