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| #9356 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 20.Sep.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004 0300Z TUE SEP 21 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 37.9W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 37.9W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.9N 39.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 44.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 46.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 48.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
