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| #9358 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 PM 20.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/02. JEANNE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT THE BASIC STEERING FLOW WOULD COLLAPSE AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. JEANNE APPEARS TO BE IN A QUASI-STEADY STATE AS FAR AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CONCERNED...NOT HAVING A COMPLETE CLOSED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 55 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ALSO SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE. HOWEVER OUR CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS RECON WHICH WAS 75 KTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KTS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND THAT GUIDANCE IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 27.4N 70.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 27.4N 70.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 27.3N 69.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 26.7N 69.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 26.3N 69.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 70.2W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.3N 70.1W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 28.0N 69.0W 60 KT |
