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| #9361 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 ...CORRECTION...LISA REPLACES JEANNE AT THE BEGINNING OF SECOND SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH GIVE 45 KTS. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS REDUCED TO 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. KARLS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD MAKE ANY STRENGTHENING RATHER DIFFICULT. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS THIS AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDER GO LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME THE SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...THE SAME AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. LISA IS MOVING WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM KARLS CIRCULATION. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. LISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN LISA AND KARL. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS A HINT OF WHAT IS GOING ON IS THE GFDL...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH-WESTWARD BEGINNING AT THE 4 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.8N 37.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.9N 39.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.5N 41.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 15.1N 43.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.4N 44.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 15.6N 46.2W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 15.7N 48.1W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 16.1N 50.0W 70 KT |
