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| #936249 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 15.Aug.2018) TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 45.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
