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| #936440 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 17.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C. The cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an indication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across the north Atlantic. The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is expected to be located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday. The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt. A slightly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus aids. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 47.1N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
