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| #938191 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 02.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 77.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday and a tropical storm Monday night. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi |
