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| #938216 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 02.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast feature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the southern side of the convection. All of the satellite intensity estimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed at 45 kt. Although Florence is located in an environment of relatively low wind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C. The tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters beginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an environment of higher shear. These mixed signals suggest that Florence will likely change little in intensity or weaken slightly during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then Florence should be over much warmer waters. Therefore, strengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Florence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Although the track models all show a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large by the end of the forecast period. This spread appears to be primarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically coherent each model predicts Florence to be. Since the NHC forecast shows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days, this track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.9N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.7N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.2N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.6N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
