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| #938677 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 05.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Gordon continues to weaken as it passes near Jackson, Mississippi, and the initial intensity has been reduced to a possibly generous 25 kt. Additional weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther inland, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area in about 48 h. The remnant low is then expected to become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone over the central United States by Saturday. Although Gordon has weakened, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue for the next few days. The initial motion estimate is 320/12. Gordon should continue northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 h as it moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn northward and northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies. The new forecast track is similar to the previous one. However, during the first 48 h it lies to the east of the various consensus models due to a westward shift in the guidance since the last advisory. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gordon. Future information on Gordon can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Even though Gordon is weakening, heavy rainfall will continue to affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 32.3N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 33.3N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 33.9N 92.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.3N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 37.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 39.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
