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| #938775 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 06.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 Southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence. Since the last advisory, the cloud pattern has become more asymmetric, and cloud tops surrounding the ragged eye have warmed. AMSR imagery around 0430 UTC indicated that the hurricane`s eye is tilted slightly southwest to northeast with height, but the low- to mid-level inner-core was mostly intact. Based on an average of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt, and objective estimates are even lower. Given the wind shear and current appearance of Florence, additional weakening in the short-term seems likely, and all of the intensity guidance agrees. From 24-72 h, the spread increases with the statistical models generally showing continued gradual weakening for another day or two, while the dynamical models show little change or slight restrengthening. By day 5, all of the guidance calls for Florence to restrengthen. The guidance envelope and consensus is lower with this model cycle, but the NHC intensity forecast has only been adjusted slightly lower, mainly in the first 72 h of the forecast. The official forecast is now a little above the IVCN intensity consensus and HCCA at most forecast hours, generally favoring the stronger solution of the dynamical models. Florence has continued to track northwestward, and the initial motion is 315/10 kt. The cyclone is still forecast to gradually turn westward over the next 48 h, in response to a building mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic could create enough of a weakness in the ridge to steer the hurricane farther north, closer to Bermuda, as shown by the latest GFS. However, the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that the ridge will not be significantly affected, and Florence will move more westward. The ensembles from the GFS and ECMWF do not clearly favor one solution over another, and in fact many members track Florence somewhere in-between. While little change was made to the previous forecast and the new official track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids, the model spread has increased and confidence in the forecast is low. There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence`s track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence`s eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 47.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
