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| #939519 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 11.Sep.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
