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#939740 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 12.Sep.2018)
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 90SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 41.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA