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| #939741 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 12.Sep.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 20SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 55.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 20SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 67.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
