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| #939803 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 12.Sep.2018) TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY |
