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| #940227 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 14.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Convection associated with Joyce has increased since the last advisory, with a vigorous band now near the center in the northern semicircle. In response, satellite intensity estimates have edged upward, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt as a blend between the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cyclone now has good cirrus outflow in the northern semicircle as an upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery passes south of the cyclone. The storm is starting its forecast turn toward the east and the initial motion is now 125/5. As Tropical Storm Helene to the east-northeast of Joyce moves away, Joyce is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 h, followed by an eastward turn after 48 h. The global models continue to trend faster, and after 48 h there has been a southward shift compared to the previous guidance. Therefore, the new forecast track will be notably faster than the previous track and the 72 h point will be shifted southward. The new track is still a little to the north of the various consensus models. Southwesterly upper-level winds are still forecast to increase over the cyclone during the next day or two, and the forecast track takes Joyce over decreasing sea surface temperatures. This combination should lead to a weakening trend, especially after 24 h. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward a little from the previous one based on the initial intensity, but it still calls for Joyce to dissipate by 96 h in agreement with most of the global models. It is possible that Joyce could strengthen a little more during the first 12 h while the upper-level low helps keep the stronger shear away from the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 31.4N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 31.6N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 32.6N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 33.9N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 35.0N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 35.5N 28.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
