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| #940339 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 15.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...FLORENCE SLOWLY WEAKENING JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BUT CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and a turn toward the west and northwest is expected today and Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24 inches as of midnight Saturday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
