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| #940506 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 16.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 67A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 ...FLORENCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION VERY SOON BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUING OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 80.8W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, Florence`s center will move across the western Carolinas today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center moves farther inland, and Florence is expected to become a tropical depression this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center near the coast and over water. A sustained wind of 35 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 44 mph (82 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and western North Carolina...an additional 10 to 15 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 20 inches in western North Carolina and up to 40 inches in southeast North Carolina. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding, with an elevated risk for landslides in western North Carolina. Northern South Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible today. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few hours in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through today. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
