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| #940665 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 16.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 71 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH FLOODING AND CATASTROPHIC/HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 82.1W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion of southern and western North Carolina, portions of far northeast South Carolina and southwest Virginia. Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Western Virginia and southern and eastern West Virginia. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 82.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to become northeasterly on Monday before accelerating and becoming more easterly on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected on Monday before re-intensifying as it transitions to an extratropical cyclone Tuesday and Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall over the next couple of days. Portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic States, and Southern New England are expected to receive an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible. Storm total accumulations of up to... 40 inches in southern North Carolina 20 inches in northern South Carolina and western North Carolina... will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in western North Carolina. Storm total accumulations up to... 15 inches in southwest Virginia and 5-10 inches in the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States will produce life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in southwest Virginia. For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible from northeast South Carolina and eastern/central North Carolina into parts of Virginia, western Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Bann/Roth |
