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| #940700 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 17.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HWRF model guidance. The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and not too different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
