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| #941473 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 22.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 Although deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has become increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center associated with the depression. After moving erratically during the afternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become disrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point if a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery is not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z was inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under the assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated. The initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the system is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No substantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track forecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will continue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the next day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong wind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer seems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to dissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a tropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W 20 KT 25 MPH 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
