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| #941571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 23.Sep.2018) TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Leslie`s cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity is then kept at 35 kt. The evolution of Leslie is very complex and difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in intensity or structure is anticipated until then. Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 33.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
