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| #941929 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 26.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK STRENGTHENS SOME MORE BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 55.0W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
