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| #941948 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 26.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 The storm`s cloud pattern now has a more comma-shaped appearance, with the estimated center near the western edge of the comma head. Some low-cloud lines are becoming exposed over the western portion of the circulation, which is suggestive of some increase in vertical shear. Based on flight-level and uncontaminated SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission a few hours ago, the intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. The dynamical guidance is in good agreement that the shear will increase significantly in 18 to 24 hours, and a weakening trend is likely to commence around that time. The system is predicted to dissipate due to the strong shear over the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days, and several of the reliable global models show this occurring even sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest multi-model consensus, IVCN, which has been a good performer in the Atlantic basin so far this year. Kirk is moving west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt. A pronounced mid-level ridge over the southwestern North Atlantic and Florida should continue to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward heading through the forecast period. Based on the latest track model guidance, the official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one and now takes Kirk over the Lesser Antilles in about 24 hours. On this basis, the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds in the warning area is a few hours earlier than implied by the previous advisory. For specific timing information, please consult the latest arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds graphic on the National Hurricane Center website. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.1N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.7N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.7N 74.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
