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| #942044 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 27.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 59.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 59.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area by this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
