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| #942080 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 27.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Kirk remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed low-level center located to the west of the main convective mass. There has been some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the center this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well east and southeast of the center. Despite the satellite presentation, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kirk through early this afternoon continued to find winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to fly into the storm late this afternoon and evening. The strong westerly shear that is currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to increase over the next day or so, and Kirk is expected to weaken as the low- and mid-level centers decouple even further. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression within 36 hours, and is likely to become an open trough in 2 to 3 days when the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity aids, and the global models which show weakening and dissipation of the system within 72 hours. Kirk is moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Kirk west-northwestward to westward during the next couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance, and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later this evening through early Friday. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.6N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.1N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
