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| #942762 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 02.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not one yet. The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at this time. However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass with winds of at least 55 kt. Having said that, environmental conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and remain one for a couple of days. After that time, Leslie will reach cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated. Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at 3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and will move eastward. The forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus HCCA and the other multi-model aids. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on recent ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
