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| #942792 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 03.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in infrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken convection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear over the next day or two. These conditions should allow for some additional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later in the period. Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that the cyclone`s equatorward motion has likely come to an end. A shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward by tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue over the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
