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| #942852 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 03.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 The satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the past six hours. Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with periodic intrusions of slightly drier air. The hurricane still has well-defined outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance. Now that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is passing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the past day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected through this evening. However, some slight strengthening is possible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake. Gradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when the system reaches cooler waters farther to the north. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Satellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this motion appears to be accelerating. This northward motion is expected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge to its southeast. After that time, an eastward motion is forecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The latest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short term and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast points. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to trend toward this guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 29.9N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde |
