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| #943217 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 06.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
