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| #943252 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 06.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
