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| #943359 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 07.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 85.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
