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| #943833 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 10.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT. Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
