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| #943981 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 10.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Suwanee River. The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on late Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph (96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
