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| #944108 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 11.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Nadine is a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range, and since the satellite appearance has not changed much, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. This value is near the high end of the satellite-based intensity estimates. The environment near Nadine is expected to become even more hostile during the next couple of days due to the combined effects of strong west- southwesterly shear and drier air. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and dissipation is expected to occur in 2 to 3 days when the shear is forecast to be in excess of 30 kt. The models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC intensity forecast. The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. Nadine is expected to continue moving northwestward for about another day while the tropical storm remains relatively deep, or vertically coherent. After that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is forecast to turn to the left in the low-level flow, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is not too different than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 14.1N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
