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| #944272 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AND BECOME POST TROPICAL... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 76.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Lookout North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east- northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move off the coast of Virginia within the next hour or two and then begin to race east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is expected to become a post-tropical low overnight and then intensity over the western Atlantic on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula overnight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
