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| #944441 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 12.Oct.2018) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...LESLIE DASHING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE IBERIAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 20.7W ABOUT 690 MI...1125 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NW OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 20.7 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). A fast motion toward the east-northeast is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island overnight and early Saturday, approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain late Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula Saturday night, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island early Saturday. Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to portions of Portugal late Saturday, and gale-force winds to portions of western Spain late Saturday through early Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4 inches (100 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco on Saturday, continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
