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| #9449 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 21.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 2100Z TUE SEP 21 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 48.6W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 70SE 25SW 75NW. 50 KT.......125NE 125SE 50SW 125NW. 34 KT.......250NE 250SE 125SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 350SE 175SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 48.6W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.9N 49.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 125NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.1N 45.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.2N 42.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 52.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 57.5N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
