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#9454 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 21.Sep.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004
2100Z TUE SEP 21 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 40.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 40.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.8N 41.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 43.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 44.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 45.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART