Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #9455 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NON-SYMMETRIC...APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 105 KT. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT ANALYZE VERY MUCH SHEAR UNTIL 48 HOURS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ADDITONAL WEAKENING UNTIL 36 HOURS IN RESPECT TO THIS GUIDANCE. IF THE PRESENT APPARENT SHEAR HOLDS UP...KARL COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST. KARL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS BY 72 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/14. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.9N 48.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.9N 49.4W 105 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 105 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 47.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 34.1N 45.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 44.2N 42.2W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1800Z 57.5N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
